Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Hassan Nasrallah And His Evidence : It Depends on Where You Stand

Hassan Nasrallah spoke yesterday in that press conference , he revealed what he considered as a circumstantial evidence on Israel's involvement in Al Hariri's murder or to be accurate not only involvement but standing behind the assassination from A to Z.

Before going in to details of the press conference which was aired in almost all Arabic and Lebanese news channels except Future News for  unknown reason despite the fact that that press conference is related directly to the founder of the network himself ; before analyzing the juicy parts of the press conference from spies' profiles and UAV's clips we must agree on something :

  1. Neither the tribunal nor Hezbollah has got a real direct evidence in Al Hariri's assassination because simply that assassination is just like JFK's assassination ; it was planned and executed in a way not to incriminate any party what so ever.There is no gun with fingers print on it here I am afraid , also news' reports leaks in international press based on intelligence sources are not that enough 'it is a joke actually'
  2. The tribunal has turned in to a political means of blackmail against both Syria and Hezbollah ; there is no doubt if Hezbollah and Syria were pro-west side , things would be different totally and they would overlooked even if they were behind it !!
  3. If you believe in the innocence of Hezbollah , if you support Hezbollah , you will believe its theory or rather its case against Israel.
  4. If you believe in the involvement of Hezbollah , if you hate Hezbollah , you will not buy its theory or case easily or at all.
  5. It is all about Hezbollah and its resistance , not about Al Hariri , Israel will not rest except Hezbollah is striped from its military powers whether through international interfere or even better through a civil war.

I have been following Al Hariri's assassination since day one , I can't forget that day and despite I started as a believer in the Syrian's involvement in the matter  , I had to rethink that whole case over and over for what followed from events in Lebanon whether from assassinations or the Lebanese presidential elections or the Syrian withdrawal or the July 2006 war or the clashes between the Lebanese sects…etc.

Now moving to the press conference ; We were waiting for Nasrallah to say hey we filmed the Israeli commandos while carrying out their operation but we were naïve actually because what Nasrallah presented was actually not a direct evidence , it was nearly circumstantial evidence.

You can watch below here :

Nasrallah divided his press conference in to three parts :

  1. The first part dealt with profiles from the most important and dangerous Lebanese spies and agents working for Israel arrested in Lebanon lately by the army. Some of these spies helped the Israeli forces in their operations inside Lebanon targeting prominent personalities while the others were collecting int'l about VIPs in Lebanon from the level of the President , the army's chief , prime minister Saad El-Hariri and War prince Samir Gaegae. Most of these spies were arrested by the Lebanese army while the rest managed to escape. They are from different ages , ethnics and sects as if they were representing the diverse sectarian nature of Lebanon !!  'Non Lebanese were amazed by all those spies'
  2. The second part dealt with the IAF UAV's clips.Hezbollah managed to hack and download the UAV films for years despite their limited sources ; there are hundreds of hours they managed to download and interpret ; of course technically it took long time to understand what these films were , where these film were shot and most importantly why as the IAF did not film only the South. Nasrallah showed us the UAV's clips of certain operations.
  3. The third part , the most part was the UAV's clips through out the years following the routes of late PM Hariri carefully in Beirut especially the route he took on that bloody day. Also the IAF movement over Lebanon , exactly Beirut on the 14 February 2005.

Nasrallah's simple  case was as follows : The Israelis planned for a long time to kill Rafik El-Hariri in order to send the country again to the civil war whirl , Israel planned to sabotage the relation between El-Hariri and Hezbollah as in 1996 Ahmed Nasrallah ,a spy working for Israel confessed to the Lebanese authority that by the Israelis' orders he tried to convince the late prime minister that Hezbollah was planning to kill him  so here you got the intentions and planning. Nasrallah later showed the UAV clips that showed a careful surveillance for late El-Hariri's movement in Beirut and outside it even when he visited his relatives  in several years, the clips interestingly enough were focusing on the same route he took on that bloody day in 2005. In the end he revealed that one of Israel's important spies was in the Saint George hotel at the same area and time when late El Hariri was assassinated while the IAF kept infiltrating the Lebanese skies all day long in a strange pattern.

In the end he rested his case leaving the conclusion to the whole world, to the Lebanese and Arab public opinions.

I believe he managed of winning a huge part of the Arab public opinion with his press conference and what he presented from circumstantial evidence. We are emotional people and for long time Hezbollah's opponents in the region have been using its alliance with Iran and Shiite background to remind people with the old Arab-Persian conflict that became the Sunni-Shiite conflict unfortunately ; Nasrallah regained a lot in that press conference when he reminded the people with the real enemy of Lebanon.

The Lebanese public opinion as expected is divided between silence from the pro-west 14 March's coalition's side and complete support from the opposition side. The silence from the Pro-west team in Lebanon and its conflicting contradicting statements today show that what he presented was logic enough for the people to stand for a moment and think about the other suspect everybody refuses to speak about all that time. The future movement is in very bad position as Al Hariri junior is in Sardinia currently and Nasrallah revealed that his party was cooperating with the Al Hariri's to know who really killed the prime minister in 2005 , the cooperation was for while and then stopped still Hezbollah continue in its investigations especially it sensed that it is now a suspect. Israel officially and unofficially denied the charges still there is certain question :

Why did the IAF UAV film these areas of Beirut so carefully where Hezbollah has no existence what so ever ?? Why did the IAF UAF film the houses of El-Hariri's relatives ??

Hezbollah did not show these clips all this time I believe because they did not want to burn their little surprise that they are hacking the UAV's transmission but now it needs to prove their innocence  not only for their existence but for the stability of Lebanon itself.

Personally I do not believe that Hezbollah is behind the El Hariri's assassination , what gains they would get from that !!?? Their differences with El Hariri were not that huge to the level of getting rid from him and to deal with possible sectarian division in the country !!??

Did the Israelis do it !!?? Nobody is sure but it will be not the first time they do something like that even in Lebanon and they showed a huge interest in getting rid the man already so why not !!??

10 comments:

  1. I note with approval that this post from Z is apparently in response to a challenge from Angry Israeli to blog about Nasrallah's speech.

    To me it seems implausible that Israel killed Hariri, but I admit I haven't watched much of the video. Car bombs and suicide bombers just aren't Mossad's style; they have more finesse.

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  2. I was actually writing this post when he posted his comment.
    car bombs are actually Mossad style , you got the car bombs of Hamas leaders in Gaza and PLO leaders in Lebanon , the murder of Hassan Salama of Munich incident
    In fact it was one of their famous methods in Lebanon
    It was not a suicide bombing incident

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  3. Ok, Z, thank you for that information. By the way my remark about suicide bombing was based on the Wikipedia article on Hariri which says "The latest progress report by Brammertz has indicated that DNA evidence collected from the crime scene suggests that the assassination might be the act of a young male suicide bomber."

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  4. Z, I read about Ali Hassan Salameh and I stand corrected.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think you will be an expert on the Middle East issues by reading this blog :D
    regarding Brammataz's report , I do not know it seems too more than a suicide attack, I remember our military and terrorism experts did not stop there because if we are speaking about the blast it was bloody big that shook the whole city , also his convoy was said to be the second after Mubarak's convoy in the region when it comes to security measures , a suicide attacker could be spotted
    I remember the photos and I even blogged here , I was still in college
    also in political assassinations in Lebanon it was not used even later
    When you read the case and the tribunal you will find many gaps and question marks

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  6. Sorry, not convinced by the comments on the article; a male suicide bomber cannot carry so much explosive power... that is too far fetched. A note for the author: calling something circumstantial evidence is usually used to downgrade it's usage; such is customary in law; I would have picked another term... and what Nasrallah is saying is that these events warrant investigation by the tribunal, as much as their shaky evidence does. As u said, it all depends on what one thinks, and I'm convinced that it was Israel who did it..

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  7. Where is the motive here?
    Rafik Hariri tried to expel the Syrian influence from Lebanon. Israel has been trying to expel the Syrian influence from Lebanon for 35 years. Prime Minister Hariri was hardly a threat to Israel; Syria despised him, and Hizbullah did not care much for him when he was alive. Today after his death, he became Hizbullah's ally? And Israel killed him for no reason?

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  8. @Last Anon: its normal that Hariri wouldve wanted Syria out and had issues with competing entities and groups in Lebanon but in no way would he have been more friends with Israel.
    Call it conspiracy theory or what ever for many of us Israel is the one who stands to gain the most from creating instability in Lebanon and Hariri was the one giving more weight to stability. I doubt he was at huge odds with Hizballah, especially as far as protecting Lebanon from Israel was concerned.

    I like how Sheikh Nasrallah presented his arguments, for me more in a legal manner. What he presented warrants more in depth investigation. Also, its a scandal for Israel how he actually managed to have such videos :D

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  9. Zeinobia plz explain me why would Israel assassinate someone who's anti the Iran-Syria-Hizb axis and someone who did no harm to any Jew or israeli?

    @ last Anon who said "for many of us Israel is the one who stands to gain the most from creating instability in Lebanon"

    Complete nonsense! Israel (and the US, KSA, France and the Sunni and Christian Lebs ) stands to gain from a STABLE, not an instable, Lebanon.

    That's why Nasrallah threatened civil war and war with Israel if he is blamed for Hariri's death.

    And actually most Lebs ridicule Nasrallah and don't believe a word he says and actually want him dead and want peace with Israel. Just read comments on Leb sites and see for yourself.

    Anyway, if anything, Nasrallah's latest speech shows that he knows he and his org are in great trouble and that their days are numbered.

    And if the recent reports from Lebanon are true, which I highly dought, that the latest "Israeli spy" met Nasrallah in person in his bunker it seems he'll be joining Musawi and Mughniyah soon. :)

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  10. Can anyone tell me that those videos are from israeli planes ???????? Where is the proof ??? The videos were the only concrete evidence that Nasr allah presented and yet there is no proof that they are israeili !!!

    ReplyDelete

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